The pace of change in human affairs is roughly exponential. Ten thousand years ago, one could have confidently predicted what life would be like 100 years into the future: namely, exactly the same. Five hundred years ago, marginally less confidently, one could have predicted at least a few interesting changes. One hundred years ago—much less confidently—one could have predicted very dramatic changes indeed. Indeed, many did.¹ A few turned out to be close.

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It is almost foolhardy to make predictions today, given Moore’s Law (that computer processing power doubles every year), advances in artificial intelligence, potential breakthroughs in nanotechnology, and so on. But ‘fools rush in where angels fear to tread,’ as Alexander Pope once wrote, and so I offer the following 100-year forecast for Japan, based largely on a few things that we can reasonably confidently predict, and assuming no apocalypse in the meantime.

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First, the world will be a dramatically warmer place—likely 6°–8°C warmer. This will be so despite decarbonization because of the feedback loops associated with polar ice loss and methane release from thawed permafrost. Ecosystems everywhere will be disrupted, global food production will plummet, whole regions of the world will essentially become uninhabitable, and there will be enormous migration pressures on developed countries outside the tropics as people flee for their lives. Japan will weather these changes comparatively well: local temperature rise will be moderated by the seas surrounding Japan; coastal flooding will be minor compared to much of East and Southeast Asia; and mass migration to Japan will be limited by distance, difficulty, and Japan’s jealous protection of its culture.

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There will be many fewer Japanese: roughly 80 million. They will be older, more urban, and healthier. The retirement age will be 85. Sapporo will be the largest city in Japan outside the Kanto region, given Hokkaido’s relatively cool climate and favourable access to food.

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Because of its capacity for innovation, Japan will have decarbonized more completely than just about anywhere else in the world. Wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, and hydroelectric energy will make up 35 percent of Japan’s energy supply. The remaining 65 percent will be nuclear, there being no other choice. Many Japanese will grumble. Commentators will still be predicting that fusion technology is just around the corner.

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Given the technical and economic limitations of hydrogen as an aviation fuel, long-distance air travel will decline dramatically. So will tourism. Life in general will be more insular, and more local—a return to 19th-century patterns. Localization means that even fewer Japanese will be bilingual or multilingual, there being fewer occasions to function in other languages. In any case cheap, instantaneous, almost flawless translation software will make the effort of learning foreign languages unnecessary and unattractive.

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Politically, Japan will be one of the world’s few remaining functioning liberal democracies, as climate catastrophe almost everywhere else spurs polarization and identity-based populism, weakens norms of compromise and consensus-building, and opens windows of opportunity for authoritarian leaders and groups to leverage the politics of grievance. In Japan, the LDP will still be in power.

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On the international front, Japan will still not have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, as the UN will no longer exist, having failed to respond in any effective way to the horrific conflict and devastation wrought by climate change. Global governance, such as it is, will be the province of self-organized plurilateral groups. Japan will be a leading member of one of these—the G14—whose members will be the surviving true liberal democracies (in addition to Japan: Finland, Sweden, Norway, Scotland, Ireland, Iceland, Bermuda, Canada, New England, The Pacific States of America, Taiwan, New Zealand, and The Federal Republic of Guangdong and Hong Kong).

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Somewhat surprisingly, despite its reduced and aging population, Japan will be hegemonic in East Asia. By ‘hegemonic’ I do not mean in a domineering or imperialistic sense, but in a benign, Kindlebergerian sense—i.e., as a particularly powerful country performing system-supporting roles and supplying vital public goods such as a medium of exchange, credit, and security. The United States will have ceased to play this role either regionally or globally as a result of its peaceful breakup in 2060 into four independent countries (in addition to New England and the Pacific States of America mentioned above: Texas and the Confederate States of America. Minnesota and Vermont will have voted to join Canada.) Nor will China play the role, having also split into four countries following the spectacular collapse of the Communist regime in the wake of the 2021 Hong Kong Revolution.

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With the disappearance of the U.S. dollar, the collapse of the Euro in the aftermath of Frexit in 2030, and the proliferation of cryptocurrencies everywhere, the Japanese Yen will be the last stable, government-backed, widely-traded currency in the world, and Japanese government bonds will be in high demand as a rare safe investment. Kotaro Koizumi will be on the 10,000-yen note.

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As far as security is concerned, despite its greatly reduced and aged population, the Japan Self-Defense Forces—still so named as a result of the LDP’s ongoing failure to amend the Japanese constitution—will be the most capable military in the region, relying heavily on robotics and advanced AI battlefield management systems perfected by such Japanese corporations as Sony, Panasonic, and Nintendo. Notwithstanding the failure of constitutional reform, operational constraints on the JSDF will have effectively disappeared as a pragmatic response to dramatic changes in Japan’s regional threat environment stemming from three main dramatic shocks: (1) the collapse of China; (2) the breakup of the United States (which led to a three-year period during which Canada and Taiwan were Japan’s sole formal allies, i.e., until Sacramento took up Washington’s commitments under the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty); and (2) the acutely dangerous but ultimately peaceful reunification of Korea following the chaotic 2030 succession struggle in Pyongyang, precipitated by the absence of a Kim family heir.

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Takeshima will still be occupied by Korea; the Northern Territories will still be under the nominal control of Russia, though leased back to Japan in return for vital hard currency; the Senkaku Islands will be an internationally recognized sanctuary for migratory birds; and Okinotorishima will be under water.

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Lastly, Detective Conan will finally surpass Sazae-san (1969–2093) as the longest-running anime series in history—though at just under 5,000 episodes it will have a long way to go to surpass Sazae-san’s 18,797.

¹ [Insert citation to prior Asteion volume]